Two variables for this age
I've said previously that we are in the age of the last mover. What this means is that:
Any result that can be produced by an algorithm will become:
• Free to produce
• Instantaneous to produce
• Geographically independent, i.e. you will be able to produce the result anywhere
This is obviously not the case yet. There is still a lot of paid software out there. But it's starting to happen. I believe the most advanced piece of software known to man is ChatGPT. ChatGPT is free to use. Another Large Language Model (LLM), GPT4All goes ever further. It is a free-to-use privately hosted LLM. You can download, use, and own your own model for life.
On reinventing the wheel
During our entire school careers, we are reinventing the wheel. We are repeating things that other people have figured out. A miniscule subset of what we do entails novelty. Essays and the art we make in kindergarten fall into this small category.
This is also true for our undergraduate education. When we learn and apply Newton's laws, we are repeating something discovered 300 years ago.
When we start working, however, we are told not to reinvent the wheel.
Kids and infinite bandwidth
The opening scene of the movie "The Hobbit" is an excellent metaphor for what its like having kids. Initially, Bilbo Baggins is living a very comfortable life, with "all the comforts of home". Then, suddenly, seven dwarfs invite themselves into his home, and his life is never the same again. I believe whether his life is better or worse depends on how you respond to infinite experiences.
Why are some disciplines open and others not?
Georg Cantor, a 19th century mathematician, was driven insane by contemplating the mathematical theory of infinity. It seems we find it excruciating to fit infinity into our finite minds.
I sometimes feel a tinge of insanity when contemplating open-source business models.
On beggars and paid ads
Yesterday, as I made my way home after a highly productive day at work, I found myself waiting impatiently at a traffic light. I was impatient because I knew something awkward and unpleasant was about to happen.
The joy of beating a bot
We all enjoy winning.
In the good old days, you wanted to beat your nearest competitor. Today, I get the same kick from beating a robot.
On most mornings I drop my kids off at kindergarten on my way to the office. While securing my rapidly maturing one-year-old into his recently acquired car seat, I was looking forward to starting the work week with a bang. I didn't have any urgent admin to do. I could give myself over to creative work I enjoyed. It was a blissful start to the morning.
Would you tip a robot?
Suppose we became masterfully proficient at producing robots. One day, after years of development, we finally create a robot that can replicate itself. It can create all the required microchips. It can fashion steel members from garbage, and it can write the required software. This is the point where robots cease to be something we're willing to pay for. We'll only pay for things that can't be produced at zero cost, like food.
What kinds of results are there?
When considering which kinds of results can be produced by algorithms, we first need to think about which kinds of results there are. The most obvious place to start is often the best:
1) Non-Physical results. Text, images, sound recordings, risk mitigation, love, hate, belonging, excitement, dignity
2) Physical results. Cars, food, spaceships, watches, computers
The age of the last mover
We are in the age of the last movers. The first episode of the Flintstones, which can be seen here, cost approximately $670,204.12 (when adjusting for inflation). It took an entire year before the studio settled on a final design. And then they started on the episodes. The Flintstones is a generated abstraction of reality, and, by today's standards, not a very good one.
The necessity of embellishment
Adding an untrue detail to a story seems dishonest. We certainly don't tolerate politicians or newspapers when they are caught doing this. But have you ever been in a conversation where the other party recounts an exciting and interesting event from the past and, at the end, both parties find the story disappointing. The disclosing party sighs and says: "Actually, you had to be there".
Entropy increases when kids are bored
The second law of thermodynamics states that entropy, another term for chaos, gradually increases in a closed system. The most compelling proof of this is observed when you unleash bored kids into a tidy room.
An unsatisfying theory of original thinking
An original idea is an idea you have produced that cannot be traced back to something you acquired, either through reading or conversation.
This definition creates two problems for us. Firstly, when you read lots of good books, you acquire lots of good ideas. Some or most of those ideas will be better than the ones you can come up with. Before learning about Newton's second law, you were free to conjure up any crazy theory about the relationship between force, mass and acceleration. But since acquiring Newton's idea, the train has left the station. It's highly unlikely you'll produce something better than Newton on that specific topic.
Intuition is the opposite of the scientific method
At the risk of sounding like a heretic, please let me explain.
The scientific method demands a meticulous approach, where one must declare your assumptions, collect impartial evidence, and consciously endeavor to eliminate your prejudices from the inquiry. If your theory holds up throughout this rigorous process, then you can draw conclusions.